August 29, 2018 Media

New Poll Shows Shapiro Within Striking Distance of Congressman Buchanan

SARASOTA – Today, the Shapiro for Congress campaign released a poll showing Democrat David Shapiro within striking distance of incumbent Congressman Vern Buchanan.

“I’m extremely proud of our people-powered campaign,” said Shapiro. “Our story of fighting for Florida families and against government incompetence, big insurance, and pharmaceutical companies is resonating with voters, and this poll shows that people are ready to bring some change to Washington.”

The poll was conducted by ALG Research on behalf of the Shapiro campaign. The full memo can be read here.

Key Findings:

  • Shapiro within striking distance of incumbent Congressman Buchanan. Overall, Shapiro trails by a very narrow margin in an initial vote (44% Shapiro / 48% Buchanan / 8% undecided). However, Shapiro holds a substantial +22 point lead among registered NPA voters and a +7 point lead among voters who personally identify Independent voters. This initial head-to-head comes despite Buchanan having spent nearly $1 million on cable and broadcast advertisements since April of 2018.
  • Buchanan is underwater among his voters. Vern Buchanan has a net-negative personal rating, with 36% rating Buchanan as favorable and 39% rating him as unfavorable. Buchanan’s personal brand is even worse among registered NPAs (29% favorable / 45% unfavorable). Buchanan is on dangerous footing, as an incumbent who is underwater in his personal rating and as he fails to hold 50% of the vote share in the current vote. Buchanan is clearly vulnerable in 2018.
  • Following balanced, positive bio information, the race is statistically tied. After voters hear positive information on both candidates’ biographies and priorities, the race further tightens and Shapiro and Buchanan are tied well within the survey’s margin of error (48% Shapiro / 49% Buchanan/ 4% undecided). And even with reinforced positives, Buchanan fails to receive a majority vote share.


POLL SUMMARY — FL CD-16 AUG 2018 (2)